Climate resilience: what the EU's new reference framework means for adaptation
On 27 October 2026, the European Commission presented a proposal for a regulation establishing a common framework to strengthen climate resilience across Europe. The initiative aims to make climate risk anticipation an integral part of public policy, infrastructure planning and long term investment decisions.
For governments, infrastructure operators and industrial companies, the proposal marks an important step towards a more systematic approach to climate adaptation, with a common reference for assessing future climate risks.
What does the proposed framework introduce? How does it relate to existing European and national policies? And what should organisations do to prepare?
How does the proposal fit into the existing European legal framework?
The European Union already has a framework for climate action and adaptation. Regulation (EU) 2018/1999 on the Governance of the Energy Union and Climate Action establishes requirements for national energy and climate planning, including the reporting of national adaptation policies. The European Climate Law, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119, establishes the broader legal framework for climate neutrality and requires the EU and its Member States to ensure continuous progress on adaptation.
The new proposal aims to make climate resilience more operational by strengthening climate risk assessments, strategic planning and the integration of climate considerations into public decision making.
It takes the form of a European regulation. Unlike a directive, which requires transposition into national law, a regulation is directly applicable in all EU Member States once it enters into force. However, the proposal is not yet final. It must be examined by the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union, which may amend its provisions before reaching an agreement and adopting the legislation.
The proposed requirements and deadlines may therefore change during the legislative process.
A common climate reference trajectory for Europe
One of the proposal’s main innovations is the introduction of a common reference global warming trajectory for risk assessments, planning and decision-making.
The proposed trajectory is based on global warming reaching:
1.5°C by 2030, relative to the preindustrial period,
2°C by 2050,
3°C by the end of the century.
This trajectory is intended to provide a shared reference for assessing climate risks and planning adaptation measures across different countries, sectors and levels of government.
These figures describe global warming relative to preindustrial conditions, not the temperature increase expected in every European country or region. Local climate conditions will depend on geographical factors, regional climate responses and the specific hazards being considered.
France has already adopted a similar approach through its Trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique, commonly known as the TRACC. Proposed in 2023 and established in the national legal framework in January 2026, the French framework is very similar to the European proposal and is based on the same global warming pathway: 1.5, 2, 3°C (but those figure are sometimes confused with the resulting warming in metropolitan France: 2, 2.7 and 4°C).
Horizon | Global warming | Warming in metropolitan France |
Near future / 2030 | +1.5°C | +2.0°C |
Mid century / 2050 | +2.0°C | +2.7°C |
End of the century / 2100 | +3.0°C | +4.0°C |
The reference trajectory does not mean that every European region will experience warming of exactly 2°C by 2050. It defines global warming levels that must then be translated into local climate conditions using the pivot year method.
Just like the TRACC, the new european reference trajectory is intended to reduce the complexity and comparison difficulties associated with choosing different emissions scenarios and time horizons.
A new timetable for climate risk assessments
The proposal establishes a timetable to improve knowledge of climate change impacts across Europe. The European Environment Agency will have to complete an EU wide climate risk assessment by 30 June 2028 and repeat it every five years.
Each Member State will have to complete its own national assessment by 30 June 2029, then renew it every five years. These assessments will also cover subnational levels where relevant.
Annex II of the proposal outlines the expected content of these assessments. In particular, they must consider extreme events, low probability and high impact events, systemic risks, cascading effects and the specific vulnerabilities of certain populations.
For businesses, these assessments could help identify the sectors, infrastructure and territories most in need of adaptation investment. However, the regulation does not in itself impose an obligation on every company to conduct its own climate study.
Climate resilience must become part of public decision making
The proposal requires the European Commission and Member States to develop strategic climate resilience plans. The European plan must be adopted by 30 September 2028. National plans will need to address the main risks identified and define appropriate objectives, measures and responsibilities.
The text also aims to clarify who is responsible for managing risks in the sectors concerned. This addresses a common challenge in adaptation: risks may be well known, but responsibility for managing them is often spread across several public and private actors.
The proposal also seeks to integrate climate resilience more systematically into public budgeting, spatial planning and relevant environmental assessments. Public investment decisions should therefore increasingly account for future climate risks, rather than relying solely on current conditions.
A new European tool to visualise climate risks
The proposal provides for a European Climate Viewer, a digital tool designed to translate the European reference trajectory into local information on future climate hazards.
A European platform will also facilitate access to information on climate risks, adaptation and available solutions. The aim is to help public authorities, businesses and local stakeholders better understand their exposure to climate change.
What will this mean for businesses?
The proposed regulation does not directly subject the private sector to all its requirements. It primarily addresses the European Union and its Member States. Nevertheless, its indirect effects could be significant.
First and foremost, the new framework is likely to accelerate the adoption of warming level based climate projections. For European organisations that already have adaptation plans, this means that existing assessments may need to be aligned with the new reference framework. Even in France, many studies and tools still rely on the IPCC’s conventional emissions scenarios, such as RCPs and SSPs, and may need to be updated to use the new approach.
What will the reference warming trajectory, or TRACC, mean for your adaptation projects? Do you need to repeat your exposure or vulnerability assessments, or can they be aligned with the new European and French frameworks?
Callendar can help you determine the right approach and prepare your projects for the evolving regulatory framework. Contact us.
